Exposition Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Exposition Park is a Central LA neighborhood centered on the Exposition Park civic complex south of the USC campus. Anchored by the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, BMO Stadium, the California Science Center (with the Space Shuttle Endeavour), the Natural History Museum, and the Metro E Line's Expo Park/USC station.
Four categories moved in Exposition Park this August, one one-month spike and three sustained structural shifts. The structural signals all run in the same direction: robbery, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft are all tracking above where they were 12 months ago, a pattern that implies pressure across property and violent crime rather than noise in a single category.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with 285 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 233 in the year before, a 22.3% rise year-over-year. Robbery has climbed 50.6% over the same comparison period, 134 incidents vs. 89, and theft from vehicle is up 54.6%, 150 vs. 97. All three of those are sustained shifts, not one-off moves, which makes August's picture less about a single outlier and more about a neighborhood where multiple categories have reset to a higher level.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 285 incidents — about 48% above the 192 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 207, up 61% from 129 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 150, up 55% from 97 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Robbery is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 134, up 51% from 89 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Exposition Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Mid-Wilshire
290 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Exposition Park's 285.
Open page →Pico-Union
279 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Exposition Park's 285.
Open page →Mid-City
293 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Exposition Park's 285.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Exposition Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Exposition Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Exposition Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.