Exposition Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Exposition Park is a Central LA neighborhood centered on the Exposition Park civic complex south of the USC campus. Anchored by the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, BMO Stadium, the California Science Center (with the Space Shuttle Endeavour), the Natural History Museum, and the Metro E Line's Expo Park/USC station.
Four categories moved in Exposition Park this March — two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is downward: property crime is driving the activity, and the sustained-shift signals indicate the changes in burglary and theft from vehicle are not just a single quiet month.
Theft from vehicle registered a below-trend signal against a 12-month total of 138, down from 171 the prior year — a 19.3% decline — and burglary is the most dramatic mover, at 27 incidents over the current 12 months versus 85 the year before, a 68.2% decrease that now carries both a one-month drop signal and a sustained-shift signal. Other larceny rounds out the broader context: 125 incidents against 328 the prior year, down 61.9%. Aggravated assault held flat at 240 incidents; everything else was within the range those two signals define.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 138 incidents — about 29% below the 193 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 27 incidents — about 65% below the 77 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 125, down 62% from 328 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 27, down 68% from 85 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Exposition Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Green Meadows
140 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Exposition Park's 138.
Open page →Venice
136 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Exposition Park's 138.
Open page →Tarzana
143 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Exposition Park's 138.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Exposition Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.