Venice Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Venice is a Westside coastal neighborhood organized around the Venice Boardwalk, the Venice Canals, and Abbot Kinney Boulevard. Founded in 1905 as a beachfront resort by Abbot Kinney; bordered by Santa Monica to the north and Marina del Rey to the south.
Six below-trend signals and five sustained structural shifts — eleven tracked signals in total — made April 2026 a broadly declining month for Venice. No category moved upward. The sustained-shift count signals this isn't just a quiet stretch: multiple categories have been running below their prior-year baselines long enough to register as structural change, not single-month noise.
Other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and burglary were the three largest movers. Other larceny sits at 318 incidents over the trailing 12 months, against 533 the prior year — down 40.3%. Burglary is down 78.7% year over year (39 vs. 183), and theft from vehicle is off 52.5% (134 vs. 282). Every other tracked category except aggravated assault — which was essentially flat at 165 vs. 163 — ran below its prior-year level.
Notable signals 6
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 318 incidents — about 44% below the 571 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 59% below the 260 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 87% below the 294 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 134 incidents — about 66% below the 395 average from prior years.
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 61% below the 36 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 162 incidents — about 49% below the 317 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 39, down 79% from 183 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 318, down 40% from 533 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 134, down 53% from 282 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 162, down 35% from 248 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Venice compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Fairfax
328 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Venice's 318.
Open page →East Hollywood
306 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Venice's 318.
Open page →Boyle Heights
299 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below Venice's 318.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Venice, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.