Venice Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Venice is a Westside coastal neighborhood organized around the Venice Boardwalk, the Venice Canals, and Abbot Kinney Boulevard. Founded in 1905 as a beachfront resort by Abbot Kinney; bordered by Santa Monica to the north and Marina del Rey to the south.
Venice had a broadly down month — eleven tracked signals across the neighborhood, split between six one-month below-trend signals and five sustained structural shifts. The pattern is consistent across almost every category: property crime is running well below prior-year levels, and the sustained-shift count suggests this isn't a single quiet month but a multi-year reset in progress.
Other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and burglary all ran below trend in March 2026. The 12-month totals reinforce the scale of the move: burglary is down 74.0% against the prior year (50 incidents vs. 192), theft from vehicle is down 53.7% (136 vs. 294), and other larceny — the top signal this period — sits at 328 against a multi-year baseline mean of 571.94. Robbery and sexual assault are also lower year-over-year, at -24.6% and -46.2% respectively. No category moved upward; every signal this month points the same direction.
Notable signals 6
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 328 incidents — about 43% below the 572 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 104 incidents — about 60% below the 262 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 83% below the 296 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 136 incidents — about 66% below the 397 average from prior years.
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 61% below the 36 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 166 incidents — about 48% below the 318 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 50, down 74% from 192 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 136, down 54% from 294 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 328, down 40% from 546 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 104, down 44% from 187 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Venice compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Fairfax
325 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Venice's 328.
Open page →East Hollywood
313 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Venice's 328.
Open page →North Hills
307 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 below Venice's 328.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Venice, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.