Beverly Grove Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Beverly Grove is a Central LA neighborhood between Beverly Hills and the Fairfax District, organized around the Third Street commercial corridor and the Beverly Center mall. Mixed mid-century apartments and small commercial strips along Third, Beverly, and La Cienega.
Eight categories moved in Beverly Grove this April — four ran below trend in the current period, four registered as sustained structural shifts. The pattern is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Robbery leads the top signals, with 28 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 87.91 — down 62.2% from the prior year's 74. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle are also in the top three below-trend signals: motor vehicle theft fell 51.5% year-over-year (33 vs. 68), and theft from vehicle dropped 43.0% (90 vs. 158). Aggravated assault, vandalism, and other larceny account for much of the sustained-shift count, each running materially below the prior 12-month totals; burglary, at 103 incidents, is the one category holding flat.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 68% below the 88 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 68% below the 102 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 90 incidents — about 68% below the 277 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 103 incidents — about 43% below the 180 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 62% from 74 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 90, down 43% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 103, down 37% from 163 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 52% from 68 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Beverly Grove compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Chatsworth
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Beverly Grove's 28.
Open page →Eagle Rock
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Beverly Grove's 28.
Open page →Leimert Park
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Beverly Grove's 28.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Beverly Grove has spiked other larceny historically (22 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 72.7% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 22 | 72.7% |
Each row shows Beverly Grove's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beverly Grove, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.