Beverly Grove Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Beverly Grove is a Central LA neighborhood between Beverly Hills and the Fairfax District, organized around the Third Street commercial corridor and the Beverly Center mall. Mixed mid-century apartments and small commercial strips along Third, Beverly, and La Cienega.
Two signals surfaced in Beverly Grove this July, both in robbery. One is a single-month below-trend reading; the other is a sustained shift, meaning the pattern has been building across multiple months, not just a one-month dip. The rest of the tracked categories, aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and sexual assault, all came in within range this period.
Robbery's 12-month total stands at 31 incidents, down from 63 in the prior 12 months, a 50.8% decline year over year. That is the structural story here: the drop is not noise from a single quiet month but a shift confirmed across the trailing year. Elsewhere, motor vehicle theft (68 vs. 46, up 47.8%) and other larceny (580 vs. 470, up 23.4%) remain elevated against their prior-year levels, but neither generated a signal this month.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 64% below the 85 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 31, down 51% from 63 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Beverly Grove compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Encino
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Beverly Grove's 31.
Open page →Fairfax
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Beverly Grove's 31.
Open page →Jefferson Park
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Beverly Grove's 31.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beverly Grove, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.