Beverly Grove Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Beverly Grove is a Central LA neighborhood between Beverly Hills and the Fairfax District, organized around the Third Street commercial corridor and the Beverly Center mall. Mixed mid-century apartments and small commercial strips along Third, Beverly, and La Cienega.
Eight categories moved in Beverly Grove this March — four ran below trend in the current window and four registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes in the mix.
Robbery leads the drop signals: 30 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline mean of 88.17, down 63.0% from the prior year's 81. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both pulled in the same direction — motor vehicle theft fell 52.9% (33 vs. 70) and theft from vehicle fell 44.3% (93 vs. 167). The four sustained-shift signals point to the same structural pattern: these aren't one-month dips but multi-year reductions now embedded in the 12-month trend.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 66% below the 88 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 68% below the 103 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 93 incidents — about 67% below the 279 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 105 incidents — about 42% below the 180 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 30, down 63% from 81 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 93, down 44% from 167 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 105, down 37% from 166 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 53% from 70 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Beverly Grove compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Leimert Park
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Beverly Grove's 30.
Open page →Chatsworth
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Beverly Grove's 30.
Open page →Lincoln Heights
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Beverly Grove's 30.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beverly Grove, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.