South Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
South Park is a Central LA neighborhood at the southern end of Downtown, organized around the Crypto.com Arena, LA Live, and the Los Angeles Convention Center. Mid-rise residential conversions and recent high-rises along Figueroa Street and Olympic Boulevard.
Three categories moved in South Park this March — two one-month below-trend signals and one structural sustained shift. The overall shape is downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft is the strongest single signal: the current 12-month total of 168 incidents sits well below the multi-year baseline of 318.19. Burglary also ran below trend, down 30.8% year-over-year to 36 incidents from 52. Other larceny is the sustained-shift story — 118 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 174 the prior year, a 32.2% structural decline that points to a longer-running change, not just a quiet March.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 168 incidents — about 47% below the 318 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 45% below the 65 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 118, down 32% from 174 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How South Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Woodland Hills
169 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above South Park's 168.
Open page →Echo Park
172 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above South Park's 168.
Open page →Winnetka
164 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below South Park's 168.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for South Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.