Athmar Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Athmar Park is a southwest Denver neighborhood between the South Platte River and Federal Boulevard, just south of West Mississippi Avenue. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, anchored by the namesake park and bordered by light-industrial corridors along the river.
Two signals surfaced in Athmar Park this August, both in the same category. Motor vehicle theft registered a one-month below-trend signal and a sustained structural shift, meaning the decline is not a single quiet month but a pattern that has held across the trailing 12 months against the 12 before.
Motor vehicle theft sits at 45 incidents over the current 12 months, down from 83 in the prior year, a 45.8% reduction. That is the sharpest year-over-year move in any tracked category this month. Aggravated assault and robbery are also well below prior-year levels, down 43.5% and 27.3% respectively, while theft from vehicle is the one category moving the other direction, up 28.8% to 76 incidents against 59 in the prior period. Every other tracked category was within normal range for the month.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 54% below the 97 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 45, down 46% from 83 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Athmar Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Lowry Field
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Athmar Park's 45.
Open page →Hale
44 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Athmar Park's 45.
Open page →Jefferson Park
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Athmar Park's 45.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Athmar Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.