Athmar Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Athmar Park is a southwest Denver neighborhood between the South Platte River and Federal Boulevard, just south of West Mississippi Avenue. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, anchored by the namesake park and bordered by light-industrial corridors along the river.
June 2026 in Athmar Park came down to a single category doing two things at once. Motor vehicle theft registered both a one-month below-trend signal and a sustained multi-month structural shift — the only two tracked signals this month, with every other category running within its normal range.
The structural picture on motor vehicle theft is the more significant of the two: the trailing 12-month total is 49 incidents against a prior-year total of 82, a 40.2% reduction. That's also well below the multi-year baseline of 97.93. Robbery shows a comparable directional move — down 45.5% year-over-year, 6 incidents vs. 11 — though it didn't cross the signal threshold this month. The rest of the tracked categories, including burglary, theft from vehicle, and vandalism, each ran within a few percent of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 49 incidents — about 50% below the 98 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 49, down 40% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Athmar Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Goldsmith
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Athmar Park's 49.
Open page →Jefferson Park
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Athmar Park's 49.
Open page →Hale
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Athmar Park's 49.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Athmar Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.