Indian Creek Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Indian Creek is a small southeast neighborhood east of Interstate 25, organized around East Yale Avenue. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, bordered by the Tech Center to the south and Goldsmith to the north.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Indian Creek: one category moved, everything else held within normal range. Motor vehicle theft is the month's standout, running well below its multi-year pace in a neighborhood that has tracked this category closely.
Motor vehicle theft stands at 14 incidents over the current 12 months vs. 11 in the prior year for theft from vehicle, but the sharper story is motor vehicle theft itself, down to just 4 incidents in the current 12-month window against 11 in the prior period, a 63.6% year-over-year reduction. Other larceny and vandalism are also running lower, off 33.3% and 27.8% respectively, while theft from vehicle edged up 7.7% on thin counts. With only one category crossing the anomaly threshold, this is a structurally quiet month whose most meaningful data point is the sustained collapse in motor vehicle theft.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 4 incidents — about 87% below the 30 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Indian Creek compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Wellshire
3 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Indian Creek's 4.
Open page →Cory - Merrill
8 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Indian Creek's 4.
Open page →Country Club
8 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Indian Creek's 4.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Indian Creek, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.