Five Points Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Five Points is the historic neighborhood immediately northeast of downtown, organized around the five-way intersection that gives the area its name. Long the cultural heart of Black Denver, today the neighborhood includes the rapidly developing RiNo arts district along Brighton Boulevard and Larimer Street north of 27th.
April 2026 produced no tracked signals in Five Points — zero categories crossed any anomaly threshold this month. The absence of movement is itself the shape of the month: across eight tracked categories, every one landed within its expected range.
The 12-month totals show the longer structural picture more clearly. Theft from vehicle is down 17.5% against the prior year (624 incidents vs 756), and motor vehicle theft is down 21.4% (283 vs 360) — both sustained multi-year moves, not single-month noise. Running the other direction, other larceny is up 19.3% over the same window (654 vs 548), and robbery ticked up 8.0% to 81 incidents. Aggravated assault, burglary, vandalism, and arson all finished within a few percent of the prior year.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Five Points compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
DIA
574 incidents over the past 12 months — 80 below Five Points's 654.
Open page →University Hills
530 incidents over the past 12 months — 124 below Five Points's 654.
Open page →CBD
442 incidents over the past 12 months — 212 below Five Points's 654.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Five Points, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.