Five Points Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Five Points is the historic neighborhood immediately northeast of downtown, organized around the five-way intersection that gives the area its name. Long the cultural heart of Black Denver, today the neighborhood includes the rapidly developing RiNo arts district along Brighton Boulevard and Larimer Street north of 27th.
June 2026 produced two signals in Five Points, both concentrated in a single category: other larceny registered both a one-month spike and a sustained structural shift. The rest of the tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and arson — were within normal range.
The other larceny picture is the one to watch. The trailing 12-month total is 711 incidents against a prior-year count of 556, a 27.9% rise year-over-year. That combination — a multi-month sustained shift alongside a fresh spike in the same category — points to a structural increase, not a single noisy month. Motor vehicle theft moved the other direction, down 16.5% over 12 months (294 vs. 352), and theft from vehicle dropped 8.5% (659 vs. 720), providing some offset in the property crime picture.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 711 incidents — about 28% above the 557 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 711, up 28% from 556 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Five Points compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
DIA
568 incidents over the past 12 months — 143 below Five Points's 711.
Open page →University Hills
563 incidents over the past 12 months — 148 below Five Points's 711.
Open page →Cherry Creek
481 incidents over the past 12 months — 230 below Five Points's 711.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Five Pointsdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Five Points's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 9 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Five Points, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.