Elyria Swansea Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Elyria Swansea is a north-Denver neighborhood between the South Platte River and the Stockyards, bisected by Interstate 70. Industrial uses and the railyard dominate the western edge; the residential pocket east of York Street is one of Denver's oldest working-class neighborhoods.
Three signals surfaced in Elyria Swansea in September 2026, all pointing in the same direction. One category, theft from vehicle, registered a single-month below-trend signal. Two categories, theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft, registered as sustained structural shifts downward. The shape of the month is a consistent, multi-month retreat across vehicle-related property crime.
Theft from vehicle is down 32.0% over the trailing 12 months, 83 incidents against 122 the year before. Motor vehicle theft shows the same structural pattern, falling 34.7% year-over-year, 79 incidents against 121. Every other tracked category, robbery, burglary, aggravated assault, vandalism, and other larceny, came in within normal range this month, with other larceny the one counter-trend, up 24.5% over the prior 12 months at 117 incidents.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 83 incidents — about 44% below the 149 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 79, down 35% from 121 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 83, down 32% from 122 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Elyria Swansea compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Washington Virginia Vale
85 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Elyria Swansea's 83.
Open page →Washington Park West
87 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Elyria Swansea's 83.
Open page →East Colfax
78 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Elyria Swansea's 83.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Elyria Swansea, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.