Takoma Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Takoma DC is the upper-Northeast neighborhood at the Maryland border, organized around the Takoma Metro station and a Carroll Street commercial strip that connects it to Takoma Park, MD. The cluster extends west through Brightwood and Manor Park, two predominantly single-family residential neighborhoods that share Georgia Avenue as their commercial spine.
April 2026 was a quiet month in Takoma. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals of any type, making this one of the calmer months in the current data window.
The 12-month picture is more mixed. Motor vehicle theft is down 18.5% against the prior year (119 incidents vs 146), and robbery is down 13.2% (46 vs 53). Theft from vehicle and other larceny are also below their prior-year levels. Moving the other direction: burglary is up 27.3% over 12 months (28 vs 22), and aggravated assault is up 4.5% (23 vs 22). Neither of those shifts crossed the anomaly threshold this month, but the burglary trend is worth tracking as the gap widens.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Takoma compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Georgetown
444 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 above Takoma's 428.
Open page →Edgewood
407 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 below Takoma's 428.
Open page →Adams Morgan
388 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 below Takoma's 428.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Takoma, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.