Ivy City Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Ivy City is the Northeast industrial-edge neighborhood east of Gallaudet, with redeveloped warehouses now hosting distilleries and a mix of new apartments. The cluster covers Trinidad and Carver Langston to the south plus the Arboretum's western edge, knitting together rowhouse blocks and the city's most active industrial corridor.
Five signals across Ivy City in June 2026 — two below-trend drops and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant theme is a broad, multi-year retreat in property crime, not a single noisy month. Theft from Vehicle appears twice in the top three anomalies: once as a single-month drop and again as a sustained shift, reflecting a pattern that has now held long enough to register as structural change.
Theft from Vehicle's 12-month total stands at 135, down from 492 in the prior year — a 72.6% reduction against the prior 12 months, and well below the tracked baseline of 402.49 for that category. Burglary also ran below trend this month, with 35 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 42 the year before, a 16.7% decline. The remaining sustained shifts reinforce the same direction: across robbery, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny, the trailing 12-month totals are all materially lower than the prior period, with motor vehicle theft down 62.6% and robbery down 23.0%.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 135 incidents — about 66% below the 402 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 35 incidents — about 49% below the 68 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 135, down 73% from 492 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 135, down 63% from 361 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 444, down 26% from 601 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Ivy City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Downtown
130 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Ivy City's 135.
Open page →Brookland
146 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Ivy City's 135.
Open page →Chevy Chase DC
117 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 below Ivy City's 135.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Ivy City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.