Fort Totten Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Fort Totten is the Northeast transit hub neighborhood centered on the Fort Totten Metro station, where the Red, Yellow, and Green lines converge. The cluster extends through Lamont Riggs, Queens Chapel, and Pleasant Hill, residential blocks of mid-century houses and apartment buildings that step down from the rail yards.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Fort Totten: theft from vehicle is running well below its prior-year pace, and the movement is structural rather than a one-month dip. Every other tracked category either held flat or moved within normal range. This is a one-signal month, and the signal points in one direction.
Theft from vehicle is down 31.0% against the prior 12 months, 107 incidents compared to 155 in the year before, and the sustained-shift classification means the gap has persisted across multiple months, not just August. Aggravated assault is the one category moving the other way, up 28.6% year over year (18 incidents vs. 14), though at those volumes a small count change drives a large percentage. Robbery, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny all declined against the prior year, and burglary held flat at 11 incidents each period.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 107, down 31% from 155 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Fort Totten compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Congress Heights
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Fort Totten's 107.
Open page →Downtown
112 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Fort Totten's 107.
Open page →North Michigan Park
101 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Fort Totten's 107.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fort Totten, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.