Fort Stanton Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
The Fort Stanton cluster (sometimes called Woodland/Fort Stanton) sits on the wooded rise east of Anacostia along Suitland Parkway, with apartment complexes and single-family streets set between Fort Stanton Park and the parkway corridor. The cluster also includes Garfield Heights and Knox Hill, residential pockets on the same ridge.
April 2026 produced a single signal in Fort Stanton: aggravated assault running below its historical trend. With only one category crossing the anomaly threshold — a drop — the month's shape is narrow rather than broad.
Aggravated assault is down 18.9% over the trailing 12 months, 30 incidents against a prior-year total of 37 and a multi-year baseline of 46. Every other tracked category — robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, other larceny — finished within normal range, though most are also lower year-over-year. Homicide stands out in the 12-month table at 3 incidents against 10 the prior year, a 70.0% decline, but did not generate a one-month anomaly signal this briefing.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 35% below the 46 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Fort Stanton compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Howard University
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Fort Stanton's 30.
Open page →Southwest Waterfront
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Fort Stanton's 30.
Open page →Downtown
27 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Fort Stanton's 30.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fort Stanton, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.