Fort Stanton Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
The Fort Stanton cluster (sometimes called Woodland/Fort Stanton) sits on the wooded rise east of Anacostia along Suitland Parkway, with apartment complexes and single-family streets set between Fort Stanton Park and the parkway corridor. The cluster also includes Garfield Heights and Knox Hill, residential pockets on the same ridge.
September 2026 was a quiet month for Fort Stanton. No tracked category produced a notable signal, and the month registered no above-trend, below-trend, or rare-event moves worth isolating.
The 12-month picture is more active than the single-month read suggests. Aggravated assault is up 25.8% against the prior year, 39 incidents vs. 31, and robbery edged 9.5% higher, 23 vs. 21. Running the other direction: burglary is down 35.7% (9 vs. 14), other larceny down 22.4% (52 vs. 67), and motor vehicle theft down 23.7% (29 vs. 38). The net shape is a split between rising violent crime and falling property crime over the trailing 12 months, with September itself producing no fresh movement in either direction.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Fort Stanton compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Barry Farm
54 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Fort Stanton's 52.
Open page →North Michigan Park
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Fort Stanton's 52.
Open page →Spring Valley
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below Fort Stanton's 52.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Fort Stanton, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.