Bridgeport Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Bridgeport is a Near South Side neighborhood bordered by the South Branch of the Chicago River and Bubbly Creek, organized around Halsted Street and the Stevenson Expressway. Historically a working-class neighborhood and the home of five Chicago mayors; anchored by McGuane Park, the Ramova Theater, and the Palmisano Park quarry.
One category moved in Bridgeport this September: other larceny registered a spike, the sole signal in an otherwise quiet month. The broader 12-month picture shows the neighborhood split between property categories rising and violent crime receding.
Other larceny is at 461 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 11.4% against the prior year's 414. Robbery and aggravated assault both declined, down 18.5% and 11.0% respectively, while motor vehicle theft dropped sharply, 113 incidents against 153 the year before, a 26.1% reduction. Burglary moved in the opposite direction, 79 incidents vs. 70, up 12.9%, and sexual assault edged up 13.3% on a small base, 17 incidents against 15. Every other tracked category was within range this month, leaving larceny as the one category with enough single-month movement to stand out.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 461 incidents — about 47% above the 314 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Bridgeport compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
West Pullman
465 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Bridgeport's 461.
Open page →North Center
448 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Bridgeport's 461.
Open page →Washington Heights
442 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below Bridgeport's 461.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Bridgeportdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Bridgeport's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Chicago); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bridgeport, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.