Albany Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Albany Park is a Northwest Side neighborhood organized around Lawrence Avenue and the CTA Brown Line's Kimball terminus. Anchored by Eugene Field Park, the North Branch of the Chicago River along its southern edge, and a long commercial strip of small restaurants and storefronts on Lawrence and Kedzie.
June 2026 was a quiet month for Albany Park — no tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the signal count was zero across all flag types. The story this month is structural: a broad, multi-category downward trend in the trailing 12 months, with no fresh disruptions in either direction.
Robbery is down 32.8% against the prior 12 months — 39 incidents vs. 58 — the sharpest year-over-year move in the neighborhood. Burglary follows at -23.0% (47 vs. 61), and vandalism is down 10.5% to 272. Every tracked category is below its prior-year total, with aggravated assault (-3.5%) and motor vehicle theft (-6.4%) showing the shallowest declines. Nothing else broke from the established pattern.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Albany Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Kenwood
560 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 above Albany Park's 534.
Open page →East Garfield Park
574 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 above Albany Park's 534.
Open page →South Chicago
491 incidents over the past 12 months — 43 below Albany Park's 534.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Albany Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.