Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint Crime Rate Trends — New York
Brooklyn's northernmost community district covers Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Anchored by the Williamsburg Bridge approach, McCarren Park, the Bedford Avenue and Manhattan Avenue commercial corridors, the East River waterfront and ferry stops, and the L, G, and J/M/Z subway lines.
Four tracked signals emerged in Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint this month: one single-month drop and three sustained shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The structural picture is broadly downward across property and violent crime — the sustained-shift signals indicate these are not one-month moves but multi-month departures from prior baselines.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with 12-month volume at 569 against a prior-year total of 794 — down 28.3%. Aggravated assault and theft from vehicle are each running well below the prior year on a 12-month basis: aggravated assault dropped from 446 to 327 (−26.7%), theft from vehicle from 199 to 147 (−26.1%). Burglary and other larceny also posted double-digit 12-month declines — 16.1% and 18.2%, respectively — and fell within range this month without crossing the anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 569 incidents — about 42% below the 976 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 569, down 28% from 794 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 327, down 27% from 446 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 147, down 26% from 199 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
572 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 569.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
563 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 569.
Open page →Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
596 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 569.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.