Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint Crime Rate Trends — New York
Brooklyn's northernmost community district covers Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Anchored by the Williamsburg Bridge approach, McCarren Park, the Bedford Avenue and Manhattan Avenue commercial corridors, the East River waterfront and ferry stops, and the L, G, and J/M/Z subway lines.
Seven categories moved in Brooklyn CD1 (Williamsburg / Greenpoint) this August, and the shape is uniformly downward. Two categories registered one-month below-trend signals, vandalism and theft from vehicle, while five others show structural sustained shifts across the trailing 12 months. There are no spikes and no rare events. The broad pattern points to a multi-year compression of crime volume across nearly every tracked category in the neighborhood.
Vandalism is the strongest single signal: 574 incidents over the current 12 months against 774 in the prior year, a 25.8% reduction. Theft from vehicle is down 29.6% year-over-year, 140 incidents vs. 199. Robbery rounds out the top three with a sustained structural decrease, 203 incidents in the current 12 months against 290 the year before, a 30.0% decline. Every other tracked category, including burglary, aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny, also ran below the prior-year pace, with year-over-year reductions ranging from 20.5% to 35.8%.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 574 incidents — about 41% below the 969 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 140 incidents — about 47% below the 263 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 574, down 26% from 774 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 170, down 36% from 265 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 290, down 26% from 393 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 203, down 30% from 290 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
586 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 574.
Open page →Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
593 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 574.
Open page →Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene
534 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 below Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 574.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.