Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint Crime Rate Trends — New York
Brooklyn's northernmost community district covers Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Anchored by the Williamsburg Bridge approach, McCarren Park, the Bedford Avenue and Manhattan Avenue commercial corridors, the East River waterfront and ferry stops, and the L, G, and J/M/Z subway lines.
Three categories moved in Brooklyn CD1 (Williamsburg / Greenpoint) this July briefing: one one-month below-trend signal and two multi-month structural shifts. The structural pattern runs uniformly downward, with both sustained moves in property crime and the single-month signal pointing the same direction.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with a current 12-month total of 636 incidents against 775 in the prior year, a drop of 17.9%. The two sustained shifts tell the longer story: theft from vehicle is down 27.0% year-over-year (154 vs. 211) and motor vehicle theft is down 28.1% (189 vs. 263), both reflecting structural reductions that predate July rather than a single quiet month. Every other tracked category, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, other larceny, was within its normal range this period.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 636 incidents — about 35% below the 971 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 189, down 28% from 263 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 154, down 27% from 211 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
658 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 636.
Open page →Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
666 incidents over the past 12 months — 30 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 636.
Open page →Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene
598 incidents over the past 12 months — 38 below Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 636.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.