Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint Crime Rate Trends — New York
Brooklyn's northernmost community district covers Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Anchored by the Williamsburg Bridge approach, McCarren Park, the Bedford Avenue and Manhattan Avenue commercial corridors, the East River waterfront and ferry stops, and the L, G, and J/M/Z subway lines.
March 2026 produced a single signal in Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint: vandalism ran below its multi-year trend. The rest of the tracked categories were within normal range, making this a narrow, one-category month rather than a broad structural shift.
Vandalism is the clearest mover in the 12-month picture: 671 incidents against 857 in the prior 12 months, a 21.7% reduction year-over-year. Every other category held relatively close to prior-year levels — theft from vehicle is down 15.2% over the same window (178 vs. 210), which adds modest supporting texture, but neither category generated a signal beyond that single vandalism drop. Sexual assault (161 vs. 143, up 12.6%) and motor vehicle theft (247 vs. 230, up 7.4%) both ticked above their prior-year counts, though neither crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 671 incidents — about 32% below the 980 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
674 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 671.
Open page →Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
681 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 671.
Open page →Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
682 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint's 671.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.