Koreatown Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Koreatown is a Central LA neighborhood organized around Wilshire Boulevard, Olympic Boulevard, and Western Avenue. One of the densest neighborhoods in the city; anchored by the historic Wiltern Theatre, the Metro D Line's Wilshire/Western and Wilshire/Vermont stations, and a long strip of nightlife and restaurants.
Five categories moved in Koreatown this July, a mix of one spike, one below-trend drop, and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is a neighborhood where property crime categories have been quietly climbing over the past year while violent crime has eased, with vandalism producing the month's sharpest single-month signal against that backdrop.
Vandalism registered a spike this month; the trailing 12-month total sits at 781 incidents, up 8.2% against the prior year. Theft from vehicle and other larceny are both sustained-shift signals, not one-month noise: theft from vehicle is up 42.7% year-over-year (852 vs. 597), and motor vehicle theft has risen 37.5% (425 vs. 309). On the other side, sexual assault ran below trend this month, and the 12-month total of 72 is already down 20.0% against the prior year's 90.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 781 incidents — about 42% above the 550 average from prior years.
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 72 incidents — about 17% below the 87 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 852, up 43% from 597 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 785, up 34% from 586 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 425, up 38% from 309 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Koreatown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Hollywood
814 incidents over the past 12 months — 33 above Koreatown's 781.
Open page →Westlake
698 incidents over the past 12 months — 83 below Koreatown's 781.
Open page →Van Nuys
655 incidents over the past 12 months — 126 below Koreatown's 781.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Koreatowndoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Koreatown's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 8 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Koreatown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.