DROP · SEXUAL ASSAULTAPRIL 2026 BRIEFINGLOS ANGELES · 101.6K residents

Koreatown Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles

Koreatown is a Central LA neighborhood organized around Wilshire Boulevard, Olympic Boulevard, and Western Avenue. One of the densest neighborhoods in the city; anchored by the historic Wiltern Theatre, the Metro D Line's Wilshire/Western and Wilshire/Vermont stations, and a long strip of nightlife and restaurants.

SEXUAL ASSAULT · 24-MO COUNT04 2026 · 1
04812-mo avg: 2.5
KOREATOWNCITYWIDE TREND (RESCALED)-34% 12MO YOY
MoM
-41%12mo YoY
30last 12mo
1this month
01 · TL;DR

Two categories moved in Koreatown in April 2026 — both below trend. The shape of the month is narrow but consistent with a broader downward pattern across the neighborhood's crime mix: every tracked category is running below its prior-12-month total, several by wide margins.

Sexual assault and robbery are the two tracked signals this month, both drops. Sexual assault is down 41.2% over the trailing 12 months — 30 incidents against 51 the prior year. Robbery sits at 214 incidents, down 15.4% against 253 the year before. The rest of the tracked categories — aggravated assault, vandalism, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, and others — all ran below their prior-year totals as well, just without crossing the signal threshold this month.

2 drops
02 · Notable signals

Notable signals 2

DROP · SEXUAL ASSAULT

Sexual Assault

The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 64% below the 83 average from prior years.

DROP · ROBBERY

Robbery

The past 12 months saw 214 incidents — about 26% below the 290 average from prior years.

03 · By category

All categories, last 24 months

Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.

Homicidebelow threshold
2024-052026-04
Robbery-15%
2024-052026-04
Aggravated Assault-24%
2024-052026-04
Sexual Assault-41%
2024-052026-04
Burglary-6%
2024-052026-04
Theft from Vehicle-6%
2024-052026-04
Other Larceny-11%
2024-052026-04
Motor Vehicle Theft-11%
2024-052026-04
Vandalism-12%
2024-052026-04
Arsonbelow threshold
2024-052026-04
05 · Forecast

What next month likely looks like

Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.

Aggravated Assault

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Arson

NO FORECAST

Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.

Burglary

MAY 2026
Most likely 32 next month — likely between 13 and 48.
+23% vs 12-month average (≈25.8)

Homicide

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Motor Vehicle Theft

MAY 2026
Most likely 29 next month — likely between 12 and 44.
21% vs 12-month average (≈36.8)

Other Larceny

MAY 2026
Most likely 54 next month — likely between 34 and 74.
6% vs 12-month average (≈57.8)

Robbery

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Sexual Assault

NO FORECAST

Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.

Theft from Vehicle

MAY 2026
Most likely 61 next month — likely between 41 and 82.
7% vs 12-month average (≈65.6)

Vandalism

MAY 2026
Most likely 68 next month — likely between 51 and 84.
+12% vs 12-month average (≈60.3)
06 · Context & comps

How Koreatown compares

Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”

SPATIAL SPILLOVER · NEW

Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?

When Koreatown has spiked vandalism historically (18 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.

Koreatown historical spike-event spillover by crime category (3-month lookahead, adjacent neighborhoods via shared boundary).
CategorySpike eventsSame-category spillover
Vandalism18100%
Burglary6100%
Theft from vehicle6100%
Aggravated assault2— too few

Each row shows Koreatown's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 8 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.

07 · Patterns

Recurring local terms (last 12 months)

Top terms in incident descriptions for Koreatown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.

grandsimplepettybfmvmorefirearmresidentialinjurytfmvlessweapondeadlypossessaggravatedwarrantintimatepartnerappearbenchchargefailurethreatsaccessoriespartssubstance
When does it happen?

Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality

Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.

HOUR OF DAY · ALL CATEGORIES
08581,71612am6am12pm6pm11pm

Hour 0 is mildly inflated by reports without a known time defaulting to midnight — see methodology.

DAY OF WEEK · ALL CATEGORIES
02,2524,503MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
MONTH OF YEAR · ALL CATEGORIES
01,3112,622JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
08 · Methodology

How we built this page

DATA NOTE · LA FEED CHANGE

Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.

Read the full LA caveat in methodology →

Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page

Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.

Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.