Florence Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Florence is a South LA neighborhood organized around Florence Avenue and Central Avenue. Predominantly small single-family homes; bordered by Watts to the south and South Park to the north.
Six categories moved in Florence this April — four ran below trend in the current window, two registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Burglary is the strongest single signal: 50 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 124.79, and down 42.5% against the prior year's 87. Theft from vehicle and robbery also ran below trend this month, with theft from vehicle off 18.5% year-over-year (185 vs. 227) and robbery down 8.1% (170 vs. 185). The two sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't isolated dips — the reductions in multiple categories have been building across more than one reporting period.
Notable signals 4
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 60% below the 125 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 185 incidents — about 29% below the 262 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 170 incidents — about 36% below the 264 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 447 incidents — about 18% below the 544 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 53% from 70 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 50, down 43% from 87 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Florence compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
El Sereno
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Florence's 50.
Open page →Larchmont
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Florence's 50.
Open page →Porter Ranch
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Florence's 50.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Florence has spiked sexual assault historically (9 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 88.9% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 9 | 88.9% |
| Other larceny | 7 | 85.7% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 3 | — too few |
| Burglary | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Florence's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Florence, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.