Sherman Oaks Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Sherman Oaks is a San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around Ventura Boulevard and the 405/101 freeway interchange. Anchored by the Sherman Oaks Galleria and a long stretch of mid-century single-family homes south of Ventura on the Santa Monica Mountains foothills.
Three categories moved in Sherman Oaks in July 2026, a small signal count with a clear structural story underneath. The dominant pattern is a sustained downward shift in burglary, reinforced by a single-month below-trend signal in the same category. Other larceny runs the other direction, with a multi-month upward shift that offsets some of the property-crime improvement.
Burglary is the strongest move: 227 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 420 in the year before, a drop of 46.0%. That gap is large enough to reflect a structural change, not a quiet spell. Other larceny has moved the opposite way, 601 incidents against 455 in the prior 12 months, up 32.1% year over year. Everything else in the neighborhood, robbery, aggravated assault, vandalism, was within range for the month, with no fresh spikes across those categories.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 227 incidents — about 45% below the 413 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 227, down 46% from 420 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 601, up 32% from 455 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Sherman Oaks compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
North Hollywood
222 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Sherman Oaks's 227.
Open page →Westlake
203 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 below Sherman Oaks's 227.
Open page →Woodland Hills
193 incidents over the past 12 months — 34 below Sherman Oaks's 227.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Sherman Oaks, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.