Arleta Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Arleta is a northeast San Fernando Valley neighborhood between Pacoima and Panorama City, organized around Branford Street and Woodman Avenue. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes on a tight grid, anchored by Branford Park and the Hansen Dam Channel.
Five tracked signals across Arleta in March 2026 — two one-month below-trend moves and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year contraction in vehicle-related property crime, with motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both appearing in the top signals and carrying the heaviest year-over-year reductions of any category tracked here.
Theft from vehicle is down 69.7% over the trailing 12 months — 37 incidents against 122 in the prior year, well below a multi-year baseline mean of 137.56. Motor vehicle theft fell 72.1% over the same window, from 147 to 41. Robbery, vandalism, burglary, and aggravated assault all declined year-over-year as well, and none of the eight tracked categories moved upward this period.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 73% below the 138 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 71% below the 139 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 41, down 72% from 147 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 37, down 70% from 122 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 46, down 41% from 78 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Arleta compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
San Pedro
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Arleta's 37.
Open page →Playa del Rey
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Arleta's 37.
Open page →Wilmington
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Arleta's 37.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Arleta, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.