Playa del Rey Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Playa del Rey is a Westside coastal neighborhood at the southern end of Dockweiler State Beach, between Marina del Rey and LAX. Anchored by the Ballona Wetlands Ecological Reserve, the Del Rey Lagoon, and a small commercial strip along Culver Boulevard.
Two categories moved in Playa del Rey this August, one in each direction. Vandalism is the stronger of the two signals, registering as a single-month spike against a multi-year backdrop that was already elevated. Burglary ran below trend, the one counterweight in an otherwise upward-leaning month.
Vandalism sits at 45 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up from 25 in the prior year, an 80.0% increase. Burglary moved the other way: 24 incidents in the current 12 months against 32 in the year before, down 25.0%. Everything else in the category mix, robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, theft from vehicle, other larceny, and motor vehicle theft, fell outside the signal threshold this month, though theft from vehicle (up 57.1%) and motor vehicle theft (up 52.0%) are worth watching as they approach anomaly range.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 55% above the 29 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 43% below the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Playa del Rey compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Griffith Park
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Playa del Rey's 45.
Open page →Manchester Square
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Playa del Rey's 45.
Open page →Pacific Palisades
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Playa del Rey's 45.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Playa del Reydoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Playa del Rey's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Playa del Rey, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.