Wilmington Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Wilmington is a harbor-area neighborhood between San Pedro and Long Beach, organized around the Avalon Boulevard commercial corridor and the Port of Los Angeles industrial frontage. Anchored by Banning Park, the Banning Residence Museum, and a long stretch of refineries along Pacific Coast Highway.
Thirteen tracked signals surfaced in Wilmington this March — six one-month below-trend moves and seven sustained structural shifts. The pattern is broadly and deeply downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft leads the anomaly list: 52 incidents in the current 12 months against a multi-year baseline of 412.54, and down 81.4% against the prior 12 months (280). Robbery and aggravated assault both ran below trend as well — robbery fell 46.6% year-over-year (47 vs. 88), and aggravated assault dropped 41.9% (111 vs. 191). Every other tracked category was also below its prior-year level, with theft from vehicle and other larceny each down more than 73%.
Notable signals 6
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 52 incidents — about 87% below the 413 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 47 incidents — about 52% below the 98 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 111 incidents — about 49% below the 216 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 83% below the 241 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 20 incidents — about 87% below the 156 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 50% below the 246 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 81% from 280 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 89, down 73% from 335 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 76% from 168 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 111, down 42% from 191 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Wilmington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Brentwood
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Wilmington's 52.
Open page →Leimert Park
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Wilmington's 52.
Open page →West Hills
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Wilmington's 52.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Wilmington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.