Wilmington Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Wilmington is a harbor-area neighborhood between San Pedro and Long Beach, organized around the Avalon Boulevard commercial corridor and the Port of Los Angeles industrial frontage. Anchored by Banning Park, the Banning Residence Museum, and a long stretch of refineries along Pacific Coast Highway.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Wilmington: aggravated assault ran below trend for the month. Every other tracked category, robbery, burglary, vandalism, motor vehicle theft, theft from vehicle, other larceny, sexual assault, and arson, came in within normal range. The month is essentially a one-signal briefing against a broader backdrop of mixed 12-month trends.
Aggravated assault is the clearest structural story. The trailing 12-month total stands at 140 incidents, down from 186 the prior year, a 24.7% decline that makes it the strongest downward mover in the neighborhood's crime mix. Motor vehicle theft is also lower year over year, 209 vs. 248, off 15.7%. On the other side, theft from vehicle is up 14.8% against the prior 12 months, 178 incidents vs. 155, and other larceny has risen 8.8% to 234. The net picture is a neighborhood where violent crime is receding on a 12-month basis while some property categories are trending in the other direction.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 140 incidents — about 33% below the 208 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Wilmington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Chinatown
137 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Wilmington's 140.
Open page →Woodland Hills
135 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Wilmington's 140.
Open page →North Hills
148 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Wilmington's 140.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Wilmington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.