Wilmington Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Wilmington is a harbor-area neighborhood between San Pedro and Long Beach, organized around the Avalon Boulevard commercial corridor and the Port of Los Angeles industrial frontage. Anchored by Banning Park, the Banning Residence Museum, and a long stretch of refineries along Pacific Coast Highway.
Thirteen tracked signals across Wilmington this April — seven one-month below-trend drops and six sustained multi-month shifts. Every category that moved went in the same direction. The structural picture is a broad, deep reduction across both violent and property crime, not a single-category quirk.
Motor Vehicle Theft leads the signals: the current 12-month total is 51 against a prior-year 237, down 78.5%. Robbery and Aggravated Assault both registered as below-trend this month and are also down sharply over the trailing year — 51 vs 84 (down 39.3%) and 106 vs 186 (down 43.0%), respectively. Theft from Vehicle and Other Larceny round out the property-crime picture, each down more than 70% against the prior 12 months. Every other tracked category was also lower; nothing moved in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 6
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 51 incidents — about 88% below the 409 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 51 incidents — about 48% below the 98 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 51% below the 215 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 83% below the 239 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 86% below the 154 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 120 incidents — about 51% below the 245 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 51, down 79% from 237 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 87, down 70% from 293 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 75% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 106, down 43% from 186 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Wilmington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Brentwood
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Wilmington's 51.
Open page →Chinatown
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Wilmington's 51.
Open page →West Hills
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Wilmington's 51.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Wilmington has spiked other larceny historically (22 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 81.8% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 22 | 81.8% |
Each row shows Wilmington's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Wilmington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.