Pico-Robertson Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Pico-Robertson is a Westside neighborhood organized around the Pico Boulevard and Robertson Boulevard intersection. Predominantly Spanish Colonial Revival single-family homes and small apartment buildings; bordered by Beverly Hills to the north and Beverlywood to the south.
Five categories moved in Pico-Robertson this March — three ran below trend in the current month and two reflect longer structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across property crime, with the strongest signals all pointing the same direction.
Motor vehicle theft leads the property-crime pullback: the trailing 12-month total is 29, against a baseline average near 87.67 — down 53.2% against the prior year. Theft from vehicle and other larceny both registered below-trend signals as well, with other larceny down 34.8% year-over-year (88 incidents vs. 135). The two sustained-shift signals indicate these are not single-month fluctuations but multi-month structural moves.
Notable signals 3
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 29 incidents — about 67% below the 88 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 45% below the 132 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 33% below the 132 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 29, down 53% from 62 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 88, down 35% from 135 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Pico-Robertson compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Porter Ranch
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Pico-Robertson's 29.
Open page →Mount Washington
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Pico-Robertson's 29.
Open page →Windsor Square
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Pico-Robertson's 29.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pico-Robertson, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.