Pico-Robertson Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Pico-Robertson is a Westside neighborhood organized around the Pico Boulevard and Robertson Boulevard intersection. Predominantly Spanish Colonial Revival single-family homes and small apartment buildings; bordered by Beverly Hills to the north and Beverlywood to the south.
Five categories moved in Pico-Robertson in April 2026 — three ran below trend in a single month and two registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad property-crime decline, with vehicle-related and larceny categories pulling consistently lower across both short and long timeframes.
Motor vehicle theft is the strongest signal: the current 12-month total of 28 sits against a baseline average of 87.13, a reduction of more than half confirmed by the 12-month trend (-52.5%, 28 vs. 59). Theft from vehicle and other larceny moved in the same direction — theft from vehicle is down 21.2% (67 vs. 85) and other larceny is down 37.0% (85 vs. 135). The two sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't single-month dips; the property-crime contraction in Pico-Robertson runs across multiple periods.
Notable signals 3
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 68% below the 87 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 49% below the 131 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 85 incidents — about 35% below the 132 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 37% from 135 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 53% from 59 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Pico-Robertson compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Mount Washington
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Pico-Robertson's 28.
Open page →Porter Ranch
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Pico-Robertson's 28.
Open page →Windsor Square
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Pico-Robertson's 28.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Pico-Robertsondoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicle theft | 3 | — too few |
| Aggravated assault | 3 | — too few |
| Theft from vehicle | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Pico-Robertson's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pico-Robertson, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.