Mount Washington Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Mount Washington is a Northeast LA hillside neighborhood between Highland Park and Cypress Park, organized around the steep ridge between the Los Angeles and Arroyo Seco rivers. Predominantly hillside single-family homes on winding streets; anchored by the historic Mount Washington Hotel (now the Self-Realization Fellowship) and the elementary school at the ridge top.
March 2026 produced a single tracked signal in Mount Washington — a below-trend read on theft from vehicle. Seven other tracked categories were within their normal ranges, and there were no spikes, sustained shifts, or rare events.
Theft from vehicle is the standout not just for March but across the trailing 12 months: 17 incidents against 35 in the prior year, down 51.4%. That 12-month total is also well below the multi-year baseline of 64.13. Burglary and robbery show similarly large 12-month declines — down 68.0% and 53.8% respectively — but neither crossed the threshold for a formal signal this month, meaning their movement is structural context rather than a fresh move.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 17 incidents — about 73% below the 64 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mount Washington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Elysian Valley
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mount Washington's 17.
Open page →Beverly Crest
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Mount Washington's 17.
Open page →Harbor City
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Mount Washington's 17.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mount Washington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.