Cypress Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Cypress Park is a Northeast LA neighborhood between Mount Washington and the Los Angeles River, organized around Figueroa Street and Cypress Avenue. Anchored by Rio de Los Angeles State Park (on the former Taylor Yard), the Los Angeles River bike path, and the Cypress Park branch library.
Three signals surfaced in Cypress Park in April 2026 — one single-month below-trend reading and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across property crime, with motor vehicle theft and other larceny both showing multi-month structural declines, not just a quiet April.
Motor vehicle theft is the strongest signal: 34 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 68.49, a reduction of more than half. Other larceny is down 40.7% year-over-year — 64 incidents vs. 108 in the prior 12 months — also registering as a sustained shift rather than a one-month dip. Burglary fell 50.0% (7 vs. 14) and motor vehicle theft dropped 43.3% against the prior year, while all remaining categories were within their normal ranges.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 50% below the 68 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 64, down 41% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 34, down 43% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Cypress Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Arleta
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Cypress Park's 34.
Open page →Beverly Grove
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Cypress Park's 34.
Open page →Sunland
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cypress Park's 34.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Cypress Park has spiked other larceny historically (17 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 88.2% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 17 | 88.2% |
| Vandalism | 11 | 9.1% |
| Robbery | 6 | 83.3% |
| Theft from vehicle | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Cypress Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Cypress Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.