Cypress Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Cypress Park is a Northeast LA neighborhood between Mount Washington and the Los Angeles River, organized around Figueroa Street and Cypress Avenue. Anchored by Rio de Los Angeles State Park (on the former Taylor Yard), the Los Angeles River bike path, and the Cypress Park branch library.
Three signals surfaced in Cypress Park this March — one one-month below-trend reading and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across property crime: motor vehicle theft and other larceny are both running well below their multi-year baselines, and that pattern has now held long enough to register as structural, not incidental.
Motor vehicle theft is the clearest data point: 36 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 68.65, and down 41.9% from 62 the prior year. Other larceny shows the same direction — 68 incidents vs. 115 the prior year, a 40.9% decrease — also now a sustained shift, not a single quiet month. Burglary and theft from vehicle are down sharply as well (53.3% and 28.1%, respectively), though neither crossed the signal threshold this briefing. Aggravated assault is the one category moving the other way, up 40.9% year over year to 31 incidents, and stands apart from the otherwise downward property-crime picture.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 48% below the 69 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 68, down 41% from 115 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 36, down 42% from 62 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Cypress Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Shadow Hills
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Cypress Park's 36.
Open page →Mission Hills
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cypress Park's 36.
Open page →Sunland
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Cypress Park's 36.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Cypress Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.