Mission Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Mission Hills is a northern San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around the San Fernando Mission and the 405/118 freeway interchange. Anchored by the historic Mission San Fernando Rey de España, Brand Park, and the Sepulveda VA medical campus to the south.
Six categories moved in Mission Hills this March — four as sustained structural shifts and two as single-month below-trend signals. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year contraction across property crime, not a one-month anomaly.
Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest single signal: 37 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline mean of 94.54, down 56.5% year over year. Theft from vehicle appears twice in the top signals — both as a one-month drop and as a sustained shift — with 53 incidents in the current 12 months against 99 the prior year, down 46.5%. Other larceny and burglary show the same structural pattern: other larceny is down 56.4% (85 vs. 195) and burglary down 65.0% (14 vs. 40) on a 12-month basis. Robbery is the one counter-move: 28 incidents over the current 12 months against 16 the year before, up 75.0%, though the raw counts remain low.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 61% below the 95 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 53 incidents — about 57% below the 123 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 56% from 195 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 37, down 57% from 85 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 53, down 47% from 99 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 53, down 37% from 84 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mission Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Atwater Village
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mission Hills's 37.
Open page →Cypress Park
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Mission Hills's 37.
Open page →Playa Vista
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mission Hills's 37.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mission Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.