McKinley Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
McKinley Park is a Southwest Side neighborhood organized around McKinley Park itself, named for President William McKinley. Predominantly bungalows and worker cottages, bordered by the Stevenson Expressway and the Bubbly Creek branch of the Chicago River.
March 2026 was a quiet month for McKinley Park. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across all flag types — making this one of the calmer briefing periods in recent months.
The 12-month picture is more active than the single-month read suggests. Robbery is down 68.8% against the prior year — 15 incidents in the current period vs. 48 in the year before — and aggravated assault is down 27.1% (43 vs. 59). Other larceny has also pulled back, off 20.9% to 277 incidents from 350. Vandalism is the one category moving in the other direction, up 4.1% to 101 incidents, while burglary held flat at 38. Nothing in March broke from those structural patterns.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How McKinley Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
North Park
282 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above McKinley Park's 277.
Open page →Calumet Heights
260 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below McKinley Park's 277.
Open page →Armour Square
300 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above McKinley Park's 277.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for McKinley Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.