Queen Anne Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Queen Anne is a hillside neighborhood immediately north of downtown, anchored by Queen Anne Avenue along the top of the hill and Lower Queen Anne at the base near Seattle Center. Includes Kerry Park's iconic skyline view and runs from Mercer Street up to the crown of the hill.
Two sustained structural shifts define Queen Anne's September 2026 briefing, both pointing upward on property crime. Burglary and other larceny have each moved above their prior-year levels across the full trailing 12 months, not single-month noise but multi-year repositioning. Against that, violent crime and motor vehicle theft are both running lower, and theft from vehicle is nearly flat year over year.
Burglary is the stronger of the two structural moves, up 25.2% against the prior 12 months: 537 incidents vs. 429. Other larceny tracks closely behind, up 26.8% over the same window, 596 vs. 470. Motor vehicle theft (278 vs. 324, down 14.2%), vandalism (289 vs. 327, down 11.6%), and robbery (44 vs. 49, down 10.2%) all ran lower. The net picture is a neighborhood where property crime is shifting in composition: fewer vehicle thefts and less vandalism, more burglary and larceny.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 596, up 27% from 470 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 537, up 25% from 429 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queen Anne compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
North Central
579 incidents over the past 12 months — 42 above Queen Anne's 537.
Open page →Ballard
473 incidents over the past 12 months — 64 below Queen Anne's 537.
Open page →Cascade
426 incidents over the past 12 months — 111 below Queen Anne's 537.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queen Anne, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.