Echo Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Echo Park is an Eastside neighborhood organized around Echo Park Lake and the Sunset Boulevard commercial corridor. Bordered by Elysian Park (and Dodger Stadium) to the north and Downtown to the southeast; predominantly Craftsman bungalows on a hilly grid.
Eight categories moved in Echo Park this March — four one-month below-trend signals and four sustained structural shifts, every one of them pointing in the same direction. The shape of the month is a broad, multi-year property and violent crime decline, not a single anomaly in an otherwise neutral backdrop.
Theft from vehicle, burglary, and motor vehicle theft were the three largest individual signals. Theft from vehicle sits at 219 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 371 — down 27.0% year-over-year. Burglary is down 38.2% (42 vs. 68 prior-year), and motor vehicle theft is down 37.2% (172 vs. 274). Robbery and other larceny are each off more than 36% against the prior 12 months; everything else within the tracked categories is also below prior-year levels, with no category moving higher.
Notable signals 4
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 219 incidents — about 41% below the 371 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 42 incidents — about 64% below the 116 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 172 incidents — about 39% below the 280 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 33% below the 61 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 205, down 36% from 321 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 172, down 37% from 274 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 219, down 27% from 300 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 133, down 31% from 192 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Echo Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Sawtelle
219 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Echo Park's 219.
Open page →Pico-Union
218 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Echo Park's 219.
Open page →Winnetka
220 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Echo Park's 219.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Echo Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.