Echo Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Echo Park is an Eastside neighborhood organized around Echo Park Lake and the Sunset Boulevard commercial corridor. Bordered by Elysian Park (and Dodger Stadium) to the north and Downtown to the southeast; predominantly Craftsman bungalows on a hilly grid.
Seven categories moved in Echo Park in July 2026, a mix of two one-month spikes, two below-trend signals, and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant story is upward pressure across property crime, with vandalism and other larceny producing the sharpest single-month signals, while robbery ran below trend against a backdrop of multi-year volume increases in theft and vehicle crime.
Vandalism is the strongest signal this month, with 205 incidents in the current 12-month window against 165 in the prior year, up 24.2%. Other larceny is more striking in scale: 314 incidents in the current 12 months vs. 190 in the prior period, up 65.3%, a structural rise rather than a single noisy month. Robbery moved the other direction, down 28.6% over the same 12-month comparison, 40 incidents against 56. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle are also running well above prior-year levels, up 61.9% and 39.6% respectively, which anchors the sustained-shift signals in this briefing.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 205 incidents — about 33% above the 155 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 314 incidents — about 60% above the 196 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 33% below the 59 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 76 incidents — about 34% below the 115 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 314, up 65% from 190 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 204, up 62% from 126 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 303, up 40% from 217 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Echo Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Silver Lake
210 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Echo Park's 205.
Open page →Beverly Grove
211 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Echo Park's 205.
Open page →Sylmar
199 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Echo Park's 205.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Echo Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
| Vandalism | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Echo Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Echo Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.