Los Feliz Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Los Feliz is a Central LA neighborhood between Griffith Park and the Hollywood Hills, organized around the Vermont and Hillhurst commercial strips. Anchored by the Greek Theatre and Griffith Observatory in the park and the historic Vista Theatre at Sunset and Hillhurst.
Four categories moved in Los Feliz this July, all of them structural rather than one-month noise. Three are sustained shifts, meaning they reflect multi-year repositioning rather than a single aberrant month. The dominant shape is a split between property crime categories running sharply lower and others running well above the prior year.
Burglary is the clearest story: 81 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 134 in the year before, a 39.6% reduction, and it registers both as the strongest single-month signal and as a sustained structural shift. Theft from vehicle is moving in the opposite direction, 209 incidents vs 123 in the prior year, up 69.9%, also a sustained shift. Motor vehicle theft and other larceny are similarly elevated on a 12-month basis, up 54.7% and 26.3% respectively, though those categories surface just outside the top three signals this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 81 incidents — about 39% below the 134 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 209, up 70% from 123 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 81, down 40% from 134 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 99, up 55% from 64 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Los Feliz compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Panorama City
82 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Los Feliz's 81.
Open page →Chinatown
79 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Los Feliz's 81.
Open page →University Park
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Los Feliz's 81.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Los Feliz, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.