Los Feliz Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Los Feliz is a Central LA neighborhood between Griffith Park and the Hollywood Hills, organized around the Vermont and Hillhurst commercial strips. Anchored by the Greek Theatre and Griffith Observatory in the park and the historic Vista Theatre at Sunset and Hillhurst.
Six categories moved in Los Feliz this March — four ran below trend in a single month, two reflect longer structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad property-crime pullback, with vehicle-related categories and burglary driving the decline across the board.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest mover: 76 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a prior-year total of 240, down 68.3%. Motor vehicle theft and burglary also ran below trend — motor vehicle theft is down 29.6% year-over-year (81 vs. 115), burglary down 26.9% (98 vs. 134). Aggravated assault is the one category moving in the opposite direction, up 12.5% to 63 incidents against 56 in the prior year; every other tracked category was either flat or lower.
Notable signals 4
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 76 incidents — about 76% below the 314 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 81 incidents — about 53% below the 174 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 98 incidents — about 26% below the 133 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 48% below the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 76, down 68% from 240 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 194, down 30% from 276 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Los Feliz compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Fairfax
76 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Los Feliz's 76.
Open page →Highland Park
77 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Los Feliz's 76.
Open page →Hollywood Hills West
75 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Los Feliz's 76.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Los Feliz, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.