Los Feliz Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Los Feliz is a Central LA neighborhood between Griffith Park and the Hollywood Hills, organized around the Vermont and Hillhurst commercial strips. Anchored by the Greek Theatre and Griffith Observatory in the park and the historic Vista Theatre at Sunset and Hillhurst.
Three signals moved in Los Feliz this August, and the dominant story is structural. Burglary accounts for two of them: a single-month below-trend signal and a sustained multi-month shift downward, both pointing in the same direction. Theft from vehicle rounds out the three as a sustained shift upward, making the month a split picture rather than a clean sweep.
Burglary is down 31.9% over the trailing 12 months, 79 incidents against 116 the year before, a gap that reflects months of accumulated decline rather than one quiet month. Theft from vehicle moved the other way, 205 incidents in the current 12 months against 139 prior, a 47.5% increase that has now persisted long enough to register as a structural shift. Everything else in Los Feliz, robbery, aggravated assault, vandalism, motor vehicle theft, and the rest, stayed within normal range.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 79 incidents — about 41% below the 133 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 205, up 48% from 139 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 79, down 32% from 116 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Los Feliz compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw
78 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Los Feliz's 79.
Open page →Echo Park
77 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Los Feliz's 79.
Open page →Vermont Square
77 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Los Feliz's 79.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Los Feliz, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.