Larchmont Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Larchmont is a Central LA neighborhood organized around Larchmont Boulevard north of Wilshire. A pedestrian-scale commercial strip in a predominantly single-family neighborhood; bordered by Hancock Park to the west and Windsor Square to the south.
March 2026 was a narrow month for Larchmont — one tracked signal across all monitored categories, a below-trend move in other larceny. Every other category came in within its normal range.
Other larceny is down 40.5% against the prior 12 months, 22 incidents versus 37 the year before. That's the clearest directional move in the neighborhood this period. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are also both running below their prior-year levels — down 22.7% and 32.6% respectively — though neither crossed the threshold for a formal signal this month. Robbery is the one category moving in the opposite direction, 14 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 10 the year before, a 40.0% year-over-year rise on a small base.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 57% below the 51 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Larchmont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Adams-Normandie
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Larchmont's 22.
Open page →Manchester Square
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Larchmont's 22.
Open page →Bel-Air
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Larchmont's 22.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Larchmont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.