Harvard Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Harvard Park is a South LA residential neighborhood around Western Avenue and 71st Street, between Hyde Park and Vermont-Slauson. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a tight grid, anchored by Harvard Park itself and the Western Avenue commercial strip.
Seven categories ran below trend in Harvard Park this March — every tracked property and violent crime bucket moved in the same direction. The shape is a broad, uniform below-trend month, not a single-category story: robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism all registered below-trend signals with no offsetting spikes anywhere in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft anchors the top of the rankings: the current 12-month total stands at 0 against a prior-year count of 61, a -100.0% shift year-over-year. Other larceny and theft from vehicle follow the same pattern — 0 incidents in the current 12 months against prior-year counts of 29 and 39, respectively. Every other tracked category held at 0 for the current period as well, leaving the entire crime profile for Harvard Park at zero reported incidents across all seven buckets this month.
Notable signals 6
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 0 incidents — about 100% below the 113 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 0 incidents — about 100% below the 58 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 0 incidents — about 100% below the 68 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 0 incidents — about 100% below the 70 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 0 incidents — about 100% below the 56 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 0 incidents — about 100% below the 51 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Harvard Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Chatsworth Reservoir
2 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Harvard Park's 0.
Open page →Hansen Dam
3 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Harvard Park's 0.
Open page →Sepulveda Basin
4 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Harvard Park's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harvard Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.