Forest Glen Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Forest Glen is a Far Northwest Side residential community area along the North Branch of the Chicago River, including the wooded Sauganash subdivision and the LaBagh Woods forest preserve. Predominantly single-family homes on winding streets, with the Edens Expressway as the eastern border.
September 2026 was a quiet month in Forest Glen. No tracked category produced a notable signal, and the absence of any anomalies this period is itself the headline: the neighborhood generated zero signals across all crime types.
The 12-month trend context fills in what September alone cannot. Burglary is down 48.3% against the prior year, 15 incidents versus 29. Other larceny is down 27.8%, 91 incidents versus 126. Aggravated assault, vandalism, and motor vehicle theft all ran below their prior-year totals as well, with declines ranging from 6.7% to 18.2%. Every tracked category is lower than it was a year ago, and none crossed an anomaly threshold this month in either direction.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Forest Glen compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Mount Greenwood
105 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Forest Glen's 91.
Open page →Fuller Park
120 incidents over the past 12 months — 29 above Forest Glen's 91.
Open page →Riverdale
134 incidents over the past 12 months — 43 above Forest Glen's 91.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Forest Glen, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.