Valley Glen Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Valley Glen is a central San Fernando Valley neighborhood between Van Nuys and North Hollywood, organized around Burbank Boulevard and Victory Boulevard. Predominantly mid-century single-family ranch homes; anchored by Los Angeles Valley College.
March 2026 produced a single notable signal in Valley Glen: a sustained structural shift in other larceny, now running 36.9% below the prior 12-month period. One category, one signal type — the rest of the tracked categories moved within their normal ranges.
Other larceny has fallen from 379 incidents over the prior 12 months to 239 in the current window, a multi-month structural decline rather than a one-month fluctuation. Burglary is also down 20.2% year-over-year (178 vs. 223), and robbery has dropped 23.9% (51 vs. 67), though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month. On the other side, aggravated assault is up 15.6% to 156 incidents, and theft from vehicle is up 8.4% to 363 — both worth monitoring, but neither registered a signal this period.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 239, down 37% from 379 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Valley Glen compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Panorama City
245 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Valley Glen's 239.
Open page →Westwood
224 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Valley Glen's 239.
Open page →West Hills
222 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below Valley Glen's 239.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Valley Glen, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.