Del Rey Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Del Rey is a Westside neighborhood between Marina del Rey and Culver City, organized around Centinela Avenue and Culver Boulevard. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes and small apartment buildings; bordered by the Ballona Creek corridor.
Four categories moved in Del Rey this month — two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with both single-month drops and longer-term structural declines appearing in the same briefing.
Other Larceny and Burglary each ran below trend in March 2026; Burglary also registered as a sustained shift, with the 12-month total falling to 29 from 62 the prior year — down 53.2%. Other Larceny's current 12-month count of 117 sits well below the baseline of 172.56, and the prior-year figure of 177 confirms the decline has been building across multiple periods. Motor Vehicle Theft is the one category moving the other direction, up 12.6% to 125 incidents over 12 months — everything else in the tracked set was within range.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 117 incidents — about 32% below the 173 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 29 incidents — about 71% below the 101 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 117, down 34% from 177 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 29, down 53% from 62 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Del Rey compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
South Park
118 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Del Rey's 117.
Open page →Playa Vista
119 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Del Rey's 117.
Open page →Harvard Heights
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Del Rey's 117.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Del Rey, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.